this paper was published on the Diplomat on March 12. To read published version, please klick:

http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/china-needs-great-power-diplomacy-in-asia/

China needs great power diplomacy in Asia

Xue Li  Xu Yanzhuo

China is leaping into “One Belt One Road” era(OBOR). In 2014, hundreds of meetings related to OBOR strategy were held in China. Since 2015, all provincial governments have discussed the implementation of the strategy in local NPC and local CPPCC. In response to these demands, the national OBOR plan will probably soon be published. The authors, two Chinese scholars focusing on international strategy, strongly argue that China should examine the surrounding diplomatic environment in order to find out its own strategic flaw.  A diplomatic strategy targeted at neighboring Asian powers may serve as the one.

Asia is undergoing a major transformation, from the fastest economic growing area to a region facing dramatic change of regional international situation. China, on the one hand, is the driving force and reason to the transformation; while on the other hand, it has to be examined by the changing. Failure to response properly, OBOR strategy, as well as peaceful rising, may suffer a big setback.

Historically, the rising power in heartland period always fighted to control as much lands and surrounding waters as possible to become the most powerful empire, while in the time of sea power, the rising power relied on expanding colonies and trade network among suzerain and its colonies, hence an unrivalled fleet is critical stand to their success. Influenced by isolationism and mercantilist tradition of Anglo-Saxon, the United States, as the most powerful state in the world after World War II, prefers maintaining free trade order to expanding its territory. That is the main dynamic for US create Bretton Woods system, to establish GATT and WTO, to set up overseas military bases, even to the founding of UN. 

Under the free trade system, US can show its full comparative advantages in economic field, that is, to dominate the world market. The system also facilitates US to export its values. Since 21^st century, US’s comparative advantages focus on service sector, thus it promotes free trade in service industry (a typical example is BIT) while in goods trade, it advocates “fair trade” when  promoting domestic re-industrialization.

In this context, China has become the world’s second largest economy and is likely to be the largest by 2030. It lays an economic foundation for China being a comprehensive power in the future. No matter whether China could replace US’s role and status on the world stage, being the most powerful comprehensive country is the indicator that China has realized its national rejuvenation.

Since 1990s, China has advocated partnership diplomacy on the basis of non-alignment policy, and thus has maintained overall good relationship with neighboring countries. It seems to be a strategy for the period of “keeping low profile”(tao guang yang hui). Nowadays, US have embarked rebalance to Pacific Asia; Japan is accelerating its normalization; growth of Indian economy is catching up with China. The surrounding Asian countries are cautious to China’s rising. In response to the situation, Beijing has put forward OBOR strategy, which aims to target at US as a “node” and to set up several “lines” as maritime silk road in the 21^st century, thus to establish an interoperable area in Eurasia through silk road economic zones.

However, Beijing is aware that it could not be a neighboring country to 192 states in the world like US, for it is only a regional power with global influence in some aspects. The outside observers should pay attention to the fact that China has changed its identity from an East Asian country to a central Asian country as well as a main power in the Eurasian continent. Therefore its diplomacy is laying importance to all neighboring countries rather than part of them.

It should be noted that China has a large number of neighboring states, bordered by 14 countries, more than 30 neighbors as a whole if accounting those non-bordered countries. Considering the huge differences among them, China is unable to conduct equilibrium policy with the same approach and standard in its implementation of OBOR strategy. In other words, it requires Beijing to category these countries and make a balance between its policy and the demands from surrounding countries. Generally, the policy can be summarized as threefold.

As for the medium and small countries, the principles launched since 2002, such as, building friendship and partnership with neighboring countries; building an amicable, tranquil and prosperous neighborhood; new security perspective of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and cooperation;jointly building a community of common development and shared interests, are proper in bilateral relations. For the claimants of South China Sea in ASEAN, these principles still work. China needs to handle SCS issue under the ASEAN framework and to “manage difference and to develop cooperation”. To this end, it is necessary to implement “dual-track approach” and accelerate the formulation of “code of conduct in the South China Sea disputes”

The second group is surrounding pivot countries. Here pivot implies two meanings-reliable and have certain strength, hence the targeted countries of these group are often not the most powerful states in the particular sub-region, and instead, they tend to be second ones or even small countries. Pakistan in Southwest, Cambodia and Singapore in Southeast as well as Turkmenistan in Western Asia all need China strategically and wish to be considered as “reliable” by Beijing, thus, they are very likely to become pivot states. Uzbekistan is the most populous country in Central Asia, however, it resists regional integration and was not very cooperative in Eurasian Union and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and as a result, this state could hardly become a pivot country for Beijing. South Korea locates at north China, Thailand and Myanmar at South and Malaysia at Southeast also need China economically and to some extent strategically, these countries are also expected to become pivot states. It also should be noted that these countries have limited power and influence in those sub-regions and could hardly play a leading role in this area. This kinds of states may grow up pivot countries when OBOR comes to enforce. However, China can only offer,based on strict assessment, financial supports for some projects proposed by those countries. Once again, China cannot do everything for the countries beyond its own capability.

The group that needs full attention is surrounding great powers in Asia, that is, the most powerful state in this sub-region. Although Russia is a comprehensive strategic partner to Beijing, it is ruled out in this paper for not an Asian country. In western Asia, there is no comprehensive great power, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey only shows strength in some aspects. Kazakhstan locates at western China, India at southwest, Indonesia at southeast and Japan at the north is all typical sub-regional great power. (we don’t mean that their powers are only limited with in this sub-region).Yet China has formed an active systematical diplomacy to them.

Great powers are indispensable in global affairs and their role cannot be replaced by medium and small country. Similarly, the role of regional power in solving regional issue can neither be replaced by other states. Therefore, China must take these states seriously in its OBOR strategy. In this end, how should Beijing do?

The world governance experiences of US can provide some suggestions to China. Generally, US support second greatest power in all regions and set up alliance with them or provide security to them when necessary, in order to balance the greatest powers in this region. At the same time, it maintains frequent interactions and establishes close economic and cultural ties with the greatest powers, sometimes even military communication, in order for mutual benefits on the one hand, and measures to influence these greatest power son the other hand. The other featured world governance experience is to impact great powers by creating institutional platforms such as UN Security Council and G20.

The four countries listed above are the greatest powers within its sub-region and have more influence in regional affairs than the other countries. They have close economic ties with China while kept distance with Beijing on security issue. At the same time, they have close relationship with great powers outside this region. They are representatives of different civilizations: Japanese one, Indian one and Islamic one to some extent.

Additionally, these sub-regional great powers have different features. Kazakhstan is undoubtedly the strongest country in central Asia with relatively developed economy and is positive towards the Silk Road Economic Belt. Long-serving president Nazarbayev is a feature with strategic thinks on regional cooperation. In 1992, he advocates to establish CICA in order for Asia’s collective security mechanism. In 1994, he proposed the idea of Eurasian Union. As the world’s largest Muslim country, Indonesia has a stable political environment and kept a growth rate of more than 5% in the last decade. It is expected to become a powerful leader in ASEAN. In terms of security issue, this country has louder voice than other ASEAN member states, while its ambition of becoming a sea power echoed with Maritime Silk Road strategy.

Japan will remain its status of global economy. “Promoting national normalization through strengthening Japan-US ties” has become its medium-term national policy. With the recognition of China’s rising and the concern of its declining influence in Asian affairs along with it, Japan remains cautious of strengthening political and economic ties with China while it makes effort to keep its influence in Asia. India, with unrivaled cultural confidence and high political ambitions, is always eager to become an Impressive and Strong Power excluding any external intervention. Recent years, it is strengthening economic ties with East Asian countries so that to have greater voice in Asian affairs.  

These countries, however, meet some obstacles to be comprehensive leading countries in Asia: marginalized location in Asia; small territory; less GDP(apart from Japan) and limited influence of international politics. In contrast, China has advantages to overcome them and is still in booming.

As a result, it is necessary and reasonable for China to carry out Asian great-power diplomacy targeted at these countries and built new type of diplomacy cored with win-win situation. With the consideration of the economic status of these five countries, it is worthy to thing about to found G5-Asia in order for strengthening economic ties among them, hence promoting Asian economic cooperation.

In the end, OBOR and neighborhood diplomacy is a long-term strategy and should not be limited in economic fields. Given the condition that military cooperation mechanisms are not ready yet, China should start with promoting cultural cooperation beside economic one. Even if the overlaps of civilizations in Asia used to serve as a main cause of wars and conflicts, we still can view it from an optimistic perspective, that is, it is Asia’s pride as well. It is a piece of land rich in cultivating different culture. It bred most of major civilizations in the world -Islamic civilization, Indian civilization, Chinese civilization, Japanese civilization, the Persian civilization, Jewish civilization and Christian civilization. After hundreds of years’ religious and civiliazation strife, it is time to explore coexistence of different civilizations. In this respect, Asia is regarded as the world’s best testing ground and is expected to serve as a breakthrough in solving religious and historical problems. Therefore, it is an opportunity for China to initiate a culture institution,say, “Asian Civilization Dialogue” .