缅甸全国停火协议将尽快签署并生效？

    据缅甸时报，正在果敢进行的战争好象并不会影响全国停火协议的签署，将在泰国清迈和KNU总部洛基拉召开的峰会看起来只是为最后的签署扫清障碍。

    民族武装联盟领导人乃汉达昨天表示，协议草案都已经基本敲定，未来的会议上不会作什么修改，最多也就是一点补充。

    乃汉达的态度有了显著变化，就在两个星期前的5月13日他还表示如果没有果敢联军三家武装的参与，全国停火协议不可能签署。

    现在看来果敢战事好象已经不再成为全国停火协议的障碍。果敢联军的发言人林先生也表示，三家武装并不希望全国停火协议因为他们被推迟签署，虽然大家很够朋友都希望能帮助他们，但他们确实不希望因为自己而影响了大家。

    看来全国停火协议将正式签署，而果敢联军方面也不会有任何怨言，绝对的够朋友。

    为什么会这样，请看六月的苦果

Ethnic armed groups appear to have tacitly agreed not to allow the fallout from heavy fighting in Kokang in northern Shan State to delay the signing of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, it has emerged.

Amid great fanfare, the final draft of the NCA was signed on March 31 between the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), the umbrella organisation representing most ethnic armed groups, and the government’s Union Peace-making Work Committee (UPWC). Final approval of the text, which was heralded as the possible end to decades of internal strife, was to await a review by the leaders of the various signatory armed groups.

NCCT members are meeting today and tomorrow to incorporate changes made by the leaders. But NCCT leader U Naing Han Thar said yesterday that the changes would not make a great difference to the text.

“We are going to present the draft NCA more clearly so that the leaders of the ethnic armed groups can truly understand the contents,” he said. “I think there will not be much difference between the two versions, with only few additions.”

The government has already signalled its willingness to sign the text as is. The draft ceasefire agreement does not include three groups actually fighting the government, namely the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA). Those three groups say they have not ruled out the possibility of resigning from the NCCT if they are not invited to sign the draft.

However, a threat that the whole process could break down seems to have receded. Only two weeks ago, U Naing Han Thar said the agreement would be void unless the three groups were included.

“We won’t sign it without these three groups. That’s why we urged the government to discuss with them in order to participate in signing the NCA,” he told The Myanmar Times on May 13.

The stand-off threatened to dash the ambitions of President U Thein Sein to end more than six decades of civil war and get the next stage of political dialogue in place before parliamentary elections in November.

Yesterday MNDAA spokesperson U Tun Myat Lin took a softer line: “We don’t want the signing of the NCA delayed on our account. We recognise the leaders’ desire to include us in the signing, but we don’t want it delayed.”

The government’s unwillingness to include the MNDAA and its allies reportedly stemmed from a fear that they would introduce new points of contention, thus delaying agreement on the main text.

At a workshop for peace and national reconciliation organised by the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and the Karen National Union (KNU) in Yangon earlier this month, government ceasefire negotiator U Aung Min said the government would consider holding peace talks with the three groups only after the other NCCT members had signed the NCA.

He said that if the three groups were included in the process, further discussion would be required, delaying the signing.

An MNDAA spokesperson denied this, insisting, “Since the very start of the peace talks, we have been in the group. There will be no new issues.”

The NCCT has scheduled a summit of the 16 ethnic armed groups in the Karen National Union stronghold of Law Khee Lar, Kayin State, from June 2 to 5 to discuss the three allied groups’ resignation threat.

Resigning from the NCCT would make further progress difficult for them, said U Naing Han Thar, adding, “Our stance has not changed. We want all the groups to sign the nationwide ceasefire agreement without leaving anyone behind.”