The current rules-based international order reflects the values of Christian countries, in which these countries eat the cake while other nations are left with the crumbs if they follow the same rules. 

 

Since the US started to attack China's tech giant Huawei, it has violated the fundamental principles of a market economy. The Chinese people are clearly well aware of the nature of the current so-called rules-based international order - even if China follows the rules, it will only get the crumbs.

 

Due to the existence of nuclear weapons, it is unlikely for emerging powers to reshape the international order through launching wars. However, such reconstruction efforts in functional domains and regional order by peaceful means are possible, for the decline of Christian civilization and the improvement of soft and hard power among other civilizations is the trend.

 

Civilizations enjoy similarities but are also unique. Similarities make coexistence and communication possible, while uniqueness leads to mutual learning. As coexistence and competition have always been the norm, a sole civilization worldwide has never existed. It is more so in the nuclear-weapons era.

 

In the distant future, there will be local conflicts and wars, but a full-scale conflict is unlikely among major powers. Competition among great powers will evolve into competition among major civilizations, or peaceful competition among major civilizations.

 

Christian civilizations, along with Chinese, Islamic, Hindu, Japanese, and others with populations over 100 million will become major competitors. 

 

The global geographical spread of Christian and Islamic civilizations is larger than Hindu and Chinese cultures. This is based on religious ideas. In general, polytheistic civilizations lack the driving force to expand globally, while a monotheistic civilization has a strong motivation to expand. Believers in monotheistic civilizations consider themselves as the chosen ones or followers of Allah, possessing a strong belief and mission of converting non-believers through either peaceful preaching or with force. 

 

Before Columbus discovered America, the geographical spread of Islamic civilization was larger than Christianity. However, the Renaissance and capitalism gave rise to modern Christianity, such as separation of church and state, the replacement of theocracy by sovereignty. In return, religious reforms paved the way for the industrial revolution and delivered a massive productivity boost. Christian powers were able to defeat Islamic forces, providing convenience and the possibility for global expansion. Hence, Europe became the center of the world for global immigration and colonization. Since WWII, that center has shifted to the US.

 

The backbone of Chinese civilization is Confucianism and Taoism. Taoism is a semi-secular faith, focusing on the relationship between man and nature, and pursuing the doctrines of "let it be" and "action through inaction."

 

Confucianism has a greater influence on China than Taoism. It focuses on interpersonal relations, takes the family as the core, and ritual as the criterion, and provides a set of norms to tackle relationships between individuals, the state, and the world with the goal of realizing the orderly state of society. 

 

It allows secular enjoyment but asks them to never act in excess. In short, Confucianism and Taoism advocate harmonious societies that are distinct, receptive to other civilizations but lack the motivation to spread worldwide. 

 

Chinese civilization can adapt to modernity. Once internal barriers are removed, the economy can develop rapidly. It has already been proved by South Korea and other economies with similar civilizations. The Chinese mainland has already impacted the current international order because of its size. It would undoubtedly build a regional rules-based order based on its own values, and a global rules-based order for specific regions. Many other civilizations will also follow the example of China. 

 

In short, the world is entering a new era of competition among civilizations. 

 

本文2019年7月31日发表于GLOBAL TIMES

发表链接：http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1159902.shtml