XUE Li and LIU He

After Brexit, UK will not become secluded, let alone autistic. However, UK will start its reorientation of national position and division will happen between elites and grassroots as well as between England and other regions. It is hard to reverse the trend through a minimal Brexit favored by the Cabinet.

Division Between Elites and Grassroots

So-called anti-globalization nowadays is a “whirlpool” in the stream of globalization. Elites and industries always seek fame and fortune across the world except those unable to do so. Elites and industries in Britain (mainly in England) are no exception. As contributors at home, they request the government to enhance their international competitiveness by promoting commercial interests home and abroad on the one hand, and making laws and regulations accordingly on the other. Grassroots are not qualified to use enough information for decision making though they have received some education and get to know kind of European affairs. That happened in the case of Brexit referendum. Until now, they gradually recognize the consequences of Brexit and some of them have changed the opinion.

Mainly because of the capability to acquire and analyze enough information, the gap between elites and grassroots are widening, both in developed countries and emerging economies. After Brexit, Britain may narrow this gap while at the cost of a brain drain and the weakening of its industry superiority. Consequently, a decline of Britain’s international competitiveness will be witnessed.

Division Between England and Scotland

To be precise, England and Scotland will become more alienated. Scotland didn’t merge well with England in the founding of the United Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707. In the aspect of race, most of Scots were from Ireland and Northern Europe. When it comes to culture, for a long period of time, Scotland maintained a closer relationship with continental Europe, particularly France, than that with England. The first choice for Scots to receive higher education outside is the continent rather than England. Scots have been always attaching much importance to education and Scotland had more universities than England for quite long. Those invited the Scottish Enlightenment (1740-1790) and gave birth to top intellectuals like David Hume and Adam Smith. In terms of religion, Scottish Presbyterian Church originated from Calvinists while Anglican Church has little difference with Catholicism for ages. Economically, Scotland centering on agriculture is less developed than England with industry and commerce. Politically, with its own parliament, Scotland has more liberty on the domestic front. From the point of law, Scotland is closer to the legal systems of the continent of Europe than England. Scots have gotten used to the multilevel of legislation, administration and law enforcement system. The above factors converge to create a limited psychological identification of England for Scots and they prefer a closer relationship with the European continent. Besides, this relationship can be regarded as a tool to resist England Hegemony inside UK. After Brexit, Scotland will get more alienated with England while closer to EU. However, it is difficult, if not impossible, for Scotland to gain independence in the near future.

Division Between England and Northern Ireland

Ireland has attracted a large amount of foreign investment since 1980s through development of industries such as software and bio-technologies, and successfully transformed itself into “The Tiger of Europe” from “The Countryside of Europe”. Now, Ireland’s GDP per capita has exceeded that of Britain. The economic and trade ties between Northern Ireland and Ireland of Republic have much strengthened, and 31% of Northern Ireland’s trade is related with Ireland. Nevertheless, there is a limited room for the improvement of the relationship between Northern Ireland and UK. Northern Ireland and Ireland are located on the same island and they need a special arrangement for trade and personnel exchanges. On January 15th, the British parliament refused to pass the Brexit Deal proposed by PM Theresa May. But if she rejects to delay the Brexit, Britain will step into Brexit without a deal from 29^th of March, and Northern Ireland will be affected in several aspects. Taking its own interest into account, Northern Ireland may have to make a unilateral compromise with Ireland backed by EU, thus loosening its ties with London.

Division Between England and Welsh

King of Gwynedd in Welsh bowed to England in 927AD, but the actual rule of Welsh under England did not start until 1284 when King Edward I conquered the whole Welsh and issued Welsh Law. To put Clause of Prince into effect, he played a trick by sending his pregnant wife to Welsh for delivery so that his new-born son became qualified as prince of Welsh. That is why the Crowned prince has been bestowed the title of Prince of Welsh. Welshmen are descendants of Celts while the majority of Englanders are posterity of Anglo-Saxons. For a long time, Welsh played its role as Backyard Garden of King/Queen. With their own cultural tradition, Welshmen have a strong self-identification all the time. They operated their own parliament after the referendum in 1997. In recent years, UK began to make more efforts to develop Welsh while there is a low likelihood that Welsh will become a “new England”. Under the background of Brexit and with the influence of multiculturalism in Europe, the centrifugal force of Welsh towards England, though weaker than Scotland, is still enforcing.

Conclusion

The above divisions will affect British people’s political and cultural identification at different levels. Both elites and grassroots will maintain their cultural identification of England, but politically, they will further divide in identification of the role of government, and conflicts concerning these issues may ensue. The other three regions, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Welsh, will reflect on the following questions: Who am I? What does the United Kingdom mean to me? Remote areas like the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand have developed well and even better than UK after independence. Closer areas，like us, why cannot? Republic of Ireland is a good case that small and backward parts of the UK can also accomplish leapfrog developments after independence. However, England feels that these three regions bite the hand that feed them. Hence the alienation between England and the three regions will increase. Nonetheless, the gap between social classes in England may narrow and the degree of the alienation on regional bases is limited. Where the equilibrium lies rests in compromise through gaming on various topics for discussion, in which England is greatly experienced. It may take a generation before UK overcomes the Shock Waves of Brexit and achieves a new balance in politics, economy and culture.

Xue Li, Director of Department of International Strategy, IWEP/CASS

Liu He, Postgraduate Student of China Foreign Affairs University

本文2019年2月1日发表于IPP Review.这是郑永年教授主持的华南理工大学公共政策研究院运营的一个英文网站，发表各类英文文章。我间或给他们供稿。

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