First of all, it must be compatible with the current international order, which was established via leadership of Christian states and the participation of other countries, while the United States plays the most predominant role. This is directly related to the overwhelming hard and soft global power of the United States after World War II. In the process of designing and operating this order, the variable——the rising China——has not been taken into account, or has not been considered in depth. With its huge volume and potential, China will inevitably have a huge impact on the current international order while ascending. The internal and external environments force China to go through a path of peaceful rise, instead of non peaceful one like what repeatedly happened in the global history.. This binds China to build an order compatible with the current order as a whole, so as not to be rejected by it.

Building a future order in a peaceful environment is bound to be a gradual process. During the process, China and other countries will,in each field and issue, keep interaction to find a new equilibrium point until the time when the order advocated and led by China has been steadily set up, which will fully demonstrate China’s hard and soft power and can be accepted by the current international order as well. Certain conflicts, and even kind of wars, may occur during the period, but the possibility of a full-scale war is very small. External influences are important, but what’s most important is China’s own choice. If China is fully aware of its strengths and weaknesses, and enhances the former and avoids the latter accordingly, then it’s possible to achieve the goal with a relatively low cost in a relatively short period.  

Secondly, it must have distinctive Chinese characteristics. From a biological point of view, different races have both common and different genes. The common genes make human beings attract the same kind, which constitutes human society, marriages and families. Different genes, in contrast, result in different races and genders. In addition, genes will be mutated, while bad gene is to eliminated, and good gene preserved. Scientific development and technology made gene mutations less important, artificial genetic improvement has become a new trend.However, the former one has been limited by biology while the latter one has been restrained by ethics.

So is civilization as a social fact. In contrast with barbarism, civilization is the exploration and cultivation of humanity and human potential, including two aspects, i.e., commonality and difference. Commonality constitutes the basis of the exchanges of different civilizations while difference constitutes different characteristics of civilization. The “genetic improvement” of civilization is generally achieved through the exchanges between different civilizations.

Chinese civilization also has its own characteristic genes and has undergone several “genetic improvements”. This is the main reason why Chinese civilization has been passed down for thousands of years, during which strong and weak periods take turn. This also lays a civilized foundation for the rise of China. In the process of building the future order, what China needs to do is to identify the “genetic components” that strengthen or weaken itself, maintain strong elements, eliminate weak, and combine its strong elements with the powerful ones of other civilizations. By doing so, Chinese civilization can be “genetically improved” again under the context of modernity, thus reconstructing the core values system of Chinese civilization.

Besides, it must not go beyond the limits of competence. The cost of governance across civilizations is tremendously high. Never has a civilization ruled the whole world, that is, it has such a strong soft power (including radiation and attraction) to the world that the country (group) representing this civilization can comprehensively apply its hard and soft power to “rule the world as a country”. It’s unlikely that such a civilization or country will emerge in the future. Therefore, every civilization or great power must clearly “evaluate’ the scope or field of the influence of its hard and soft power in order to avoid its failure because of overstretching.

Among the two major civilizations with relatively strong global influence, the inherent cohesiveness of Islamic civilization is quite strong, but it lacks outward radiation and attraction, and its hard power is also limited, which limits its influence in non-Islamic countries. After its modernization, the inherent cohesiveness, hard power and outward influence of Christian civilization have surpassed other civilizations, and thus become the leading one in the modern international system, but it also fails to achieve the global homogenization of soft power. As a representative country of Christian civilization, the United States has achieved an unprecedented degree of “gathering and using global talents” and “leading the world” through internal and external institutional design. Even during its peak period of hard and soft power after the WWII and Cold War, however, it is still far away from “rule the world as a country”.

As a typical regional civilization, Chinese civilization is even less likely to “lead the world” in the future, and it is impossible to replace the United States. Even at the peak of hard and soft power,China’s hard and soft power and outward influence will be mainly concentrated in the surrounding areas and some countries in other regions, and only have influence in certain areas globally. It is easy to be understood and accepted to construct the future order in accordance with this thought. There will be twists and turns during the period, but it is mostly likely to achieve the goal in the end. 

(Translation by courtesy of  SHOU Pan，寿盼)

Author: Xue Li, Professor in University of CASS, Director of Department of International Strategy, Institute of World Economics and Politics(IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences（CASS）

本文2019年2月12日发表于“China-US focus”,发表时编辑做了一些删节，这是中国编辑的常见病。不知道什么时候能见到根本改观。这里发表未经删节的版本，更能体现我的想法。发表版链接是：https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/what-kind-of-future-order-should-china-pursue