Xue Li, IWEP/CASS

 

Xu Yanzhuo, Dr. IWEP/CASS

 

Over the past few years, China’s international influence is expanding together with the increase of comprehensive national strength, meanwhile it goes with higher diplomatic risks. This paper will focus on domestic hazards and risks faced by China’s diplomatic strategy or to say “diplomacy”. In general, China’s diplomatic risks can be divided into subjective and objective aspect. The former one refers to decision-making problems which includes the process before, in the middle and after decision-making, while the latter one mainly contains political, security, economic and cultural risks.

 

As it is known diplomatic decision-making is based on incomplete information, therefore it is inevitably to have risks in the policy-making process. To minimize the possible hazards, the following analysis will detail in the process before, in the middle and after decision making.

 

Pre-decision Hazards

 

Collection and screening of relevant information is the basis of diplomatic decision-making. Even though all-round information collection is extreme difficult, it is still able to achieve as comprehensive as possible through several principles. As has become customary in recent years,especially regarding major external events, information is collected through meeting, interviews and research reports from different professionals in different research agencies and academic backgrounds.The key in this step is to ensure and identify the quality of these comments and suggestions. Information collection and analysis is usually conducted by specialists in relevant research institutes, yet the information these professionals could collected is only part of the panorama and to make policy recommendations accordingly. The division that responsible for screening is supposed to gather the policy recommendations submitted from different agencies and is expected to have the most comprehensive information, then to determine the possible lacking parts and to fill it up. In this case if the critical information were lacking, it requires to be particularly cautious in decision-making, or to include the worst responses in the corresponding available policy recommendations.

 

At present China has the following flaws in the decision-making steps,

 

1) Professionals from research institutes lack of independent research and the information decays in their research. To be specific, nationalism and powerful empire status are affecting the independence and objectivity of the researches. The professionals are dare not and/or unable to conduct long-term and in-depth exploration into several significant diplomatic topics. Researcher’s capability and methods of collecting overseadata is insufficient, which is reflected by the facts that the research methods tend to be temporary field trip instead of long-time and solid field work. In addition, policy recommendations are constrained by bureaucratic interests. Sometimes some important information is intentionally neglected or “filtered out” either by researchers themselves or by the reviewers, due to their fear of incompatibility to current policy trends or leadership’s preference, which is hard to reach by top leaders.

 

What’s more, it is also worthy to emphasize the significance and roles of various think tanks.Currently the research reports from think tanks are not qualified enough to support the complex diplomatic policy. Yetit reflects the situation that it lacks a mechanical connection between think tanks (especially emerging think tanks) and relevant governmental departments. If the research reports from the think tanks could be considered or even adopted in foreign policy making, it will be a great incentive to them.

 

2) It lacks an authoritative and professional agency to summarize and select the large number, yet often incomplete policy recommendations, to identify several distinctive and complementary reports for top leadership. Unfortunately, there is not such a competent divisionavailable even in Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms,National Security Commission and Foreign Affairs Leading Group.

 

The Hazards in Implementation 

 

The level of foreign affairs departments are not high enough to make overall arrangement; it lacks of a classification and standards on implementation, nor an effective evaluation system. 

 

The administrative level problem of foreign affairs department impacts decision-making at all steps, according to its significance, in general, it has more influence on implementation than to decision-making, than pre-decision. Because what MOFA are able to carry out is only the policies directly under its governance. As for those issues that required coordination, MOFA always tend to serve as “briefings” and has very limited influence to other foreign affairs departments. In the past few years, a number of central leading groups have been set up to solve the problem of decentralization, slowness and inability to make decisions. They are effective in improving information collection and screening, yet not in implementation. Because policy implementation laid on bureaucracy at all levels, without an authoritative leading agency, the involved sectors would easily “shirk responsibility while contending benefit”. Evidence could be found on the“five dragon stirring up the sea”, which refers to the five most bureaucratic agencies responsible for maritime enforcement and governance. 

 

Nowadays, there is not an appropriate classification and criteria on foreign policy implementation, hence the implementer have more discretion of the policy. In front of large amount of policy, agreement and contracts, the relevant sectors at different level are easily prone to “selective implement”. Even though criteria is far from enough to fundamentally change the situation, it still is effective to control the problem. 

 

At the same time, it is worthy to note the significance of evaluation. At present, China has begun to issue some policy documents (such as white paper), but has not yet established a standardized evaluation system.  Especially, the assessment is not normalized, in most of the casesthe occasional evolution has been largely impacted by leadership’s preference, temporal situation and evaluator’s capability. It indicates the assessment requires to be done with more consideration on its systematic, normative, objectivity and accuracy. It could learn from US’s National Security Strategy Report and the Quadrennial Defense Review Report, which introduced in 1996. 

 

Furthermore, some diplomatic official’s improper response became another noteworthy issue in foreign affairs. Some blunt, rude or even condescending speeches or behaviors have already affected China’s national image and its relationship with host countries, which calls for a change as soon as possible. There are at least two reasons to this problem, first, some diplomatic officials have been encouraged by the cases that some sectors have benefited from showing muscles. Second, it is the people from MOF who are responsible for dealing with the negative impact of improper speeches and behaviors. In this case, as a governmental agency who has the best understanding of external situation, MOF need louder voice and higher status in decision-making and implementationto prevent negative influence. 

 

Political Risk

 

The establishment of a political framework with internal self-stability and external attraction is undoubtedly a major challenge to China's peaceful rise, and its significance may be even greater than China’s economy overtaken US. It is known US political system was mainly attributed to the elaborate design by a group of elite who has founded the state, which was very distinguish at that time (even now the elaborate system still seems to be distinguish). With 200 years of practice, it shows strong vitality and power, which served as a political foundation for US to be world's superpower. However, it also should be admitted that most of other countries failed to choose or adopt US’s political system with very few successful cases worldwide. Therefore, as an emerging power, China has no replicable model. The only way for Beijing is to learn the wisdom of political system worldwide and combine them with its own history and culture. 

 

Chinese history and culture is transforming and recovering in modern society, has yet to be completed. (As detailed below). At present, deliberate democracy is appropriate for China. 

 

Military and Security Risks

 

It is necessary for big powers to maintain military strength. As for China, its military power is to defend sovereignty and to achieve national unity rather than overwhelming presence as those of US or replacing US’s role in the world. Obviously, this ambition would lead to excessive expansion. An proper agenda for China is to deploy sufficient defensive deterrent force in local and peripheral area, rather than to establish a global offensive deterrent power. This strategic ambition is reflected by China’s long-standing of “minimum nuclear deterrence” policy. In terms of conventional armed force (including aircraft carriers and sophisticated weapons and equipment), China has not a clear strategy. Showing great power image and strength is essential, but it needs a dedicated research into what is substantial to Beijing.

 

In this case, it should beware of overestimating national security threat and the associated military pressures. China’s military expense is ranking the second and its growth rate is higher world’s major countries. What’s more, Chinese troops ranks top and the military technology is rapid developing. Considering China’s situation (large population; political system of socialism; large number of neighboring countries; non-unified; domestic separatists; no allies), further strengthening military power is unavoidable. However, China is on the way of peaceful rising with a defensive strategy and avoiding military conflicts with all big countries. In the case of protecting its overseas interests in a peaceful environment, China actually does not need continuously increase its navies and warheads to compete with the most powerful navy in the world. Therefore, it is important to figure out what is China’s the aim of China’s military development, Where is the critical point of a regional defensive force and a global offensive force? How to reduce the security concerns from neighboring countries? And How to avoid an arm race with US?

 

Economic Risks

 

It is common for a developed economy to largely expand overseas, not only trade and investment, the empires also expanded their borders, built colonies and client states, and grabbed wealth through wars before WWII. After WWII, trade and investment become main approach for external expansions through which Japan and Germany’s economy have successfully recovered and gained more profits than what it had during WWII. In the near future, trade and investment will continuously be the major way for overseas expansion, China is a new comer to this trend. 

 

Currently, China started to expand through One Belt and One Road strategy. Yet the top-down economic policy has too much non-economic consideration, for example, the pivot states of OBOR are the countries who have friendly relationship with Beijing and enthusiasm towards OBOR, rather than an in-depth look to their investment feasibility. It failed to conduct analysis to each proposal and nor to fully preparefor a mature project. As a matter of fact, it is unable for China to shoulder responsibility of these host countries’ development. Instead, it is more realistic for China to select some feasible projects with both in China’s capability and the host countries’ willingness. Generally, China is expected to gain low-profit in most of the projects; provide concessional loans in some cases and even free assistance if necessary under the OBOR. It is very risky to conduct the projects without an accurate feasibility study, to fund the projects with foreign exchange reserves in policy banks and to carry out by SOEs. To this end, it is necessary to set up the following indicators, the proportion of OBOR funds in GDP and foreign exchanges reserves; annual credit and an amount to each classified project. Taking into account of the long-term and complicated nature of OBOR, the legislative agencies are supposed to involve into this strategy. Because the supervision of legislative agencies would increase the legitimacy of these projects while reducing the legal risks.

 

Culture Risks

 

It could say China is unable to revive, nor China’s dream is achieved without cultural revival. 30 years ago, Ms. Thatcher has warned China’s weakness laid in value output. Internally, values are national identity and ethnic cohesion, while externally, it is cultural radiation and national attractiveness. 

 

Globally there is not a universal culture or civilization. Religiously Christian civilization and Islamic civilization is relatively close to universal, while Chinese civilization is a regional one, whose historical influence is mainly limited to China and several neighboring countries. However, these neighboring countries have chosen to segregate with Chinese culture during their state building process. (for example, to create completely local language different from the Chinese character system, in contrast, European countries had not fully abandoned Latin in their language system). Over the past 20 to 30 years, the economic ties between China and neighboring countries have significantly increased, but culturally, their recognition to Chinese civilization does not correspond with this trends. Instead, their security concerns to China have even enhanced. In this case, it is a challenge for China to solve the problem of increased economy investment while decreased trust and recognition. 

 

Traditionally, Chinese civilization is a complex cultural system, the core of which is Confucianism and Taoism, while the main elements including order, rituals, family-country social structure, the integration of man and nature, etc. In the twentieth century, many external factors were reflected in China's political practice in different periods and in different levels, such as the wisdom of individual equality, fraternity, citizenship, voting rights, Marxist class consciousness and public ownership. Yet, the problem is for the second half of the twentieth century, traditional culture has long been suppressed and excluded from national political practices and citizens' daily lives. The consciousness of traditional culture as the main body for Chinese society has not been emphasized until reform and opening-up policy. And it has still been explored, screened and selected. In this case, it required a value system that not only combining the factors mentioned above, but is also shared by both officials and citizens. This aim needs at least one generation with no shortcut and it is better than any reluctant alternatives. During this period, the key to ensure a result is an open cultural atmosphere, which allows the elites to think, research and debate for an attractive system that is suitable to China. This system relied on brilliant brains. Historically, the Chinese civilization was invaded much more severely than now, yet it has revived with different features. There is no reason to suppose that more than 1.3 billion people, who have enough food and clothing, are not as competent as their ancestors.

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For China, its domestic risk is far greater than the external risks. Preventing the hazards and solving risks mentioned above is a necessary step for China’s OBOR and peaceful rise.

 

The Chinese version of the piece was published on FT Chinese on  January 17, 2017. and The Diplomat published part of its English version, i. e, the first three parts that discusses problems with China's foreign policy decision making.  

 

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