Chinese Academy of Social Sciences   Xue Li

China Foreign Affairs University  Zheng Yuwen

President Xi Jinping started his national visit in 2016 to Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which implies that China is considering to carry out its “One Belt and One Road”strategy(OBOR) in the Middle East and regards it as a critical area of neighborhood diplomacy. Then, what kind of diplomacy should China conduct in the Mid-East? Is it the time for China to send army to Syria? Also, that China issued “China’s Arab Policy Paper” right before the visit means that China-Arab relations will cover Chinese-Iranian relation? To answer those questions, we need to figure out three things: the main characteristic of the Mid-East, China’s comparative advantages and China’s interests in this region.

Besides its importance in geopolitics and geography, Mid-east is economically rich in energy resources (according to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015, there are 47.7% oil and 42.7% nature gas of the world’s proven reserves) and human resource（about 500 million population with young demographic structure and high growth rate）and is in the process of industrialization and urbanization. All are developing countries except Israel.

For political field, there are various comprehensive conflicts. On account of situating in a place where many different religions or denomination meet, conflicts between various religion or denomination are particularly intense. Moreover, religious conflicts, national conflicts and economic conflicts mingle together, which even caused several local wars. This land has become the hotbed of terrorism and religious extremism. Most Middle East nations are still on the way of solving the compatibility problem between Islam and modernity. Because of lack of regional dominant power, the regional powers, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, even Iraq, enter into rivalry with each other over the leadership of Middle East. On the other hand, the civil conflicts between small and middle powers here frequently result in intervention from regional powers and outside powers. Those outside powers support different countries, religions or religious sects to earn their own benefits. In a word, it is beyond any great powers to solve those problems. They often deal with them in three ways: hands-off, supporting one side, get benefits from troubles made by them.

China could gain economic profits in this region through oil-gas exploration &exploitation, petrochemical industry, investment, infrastructure construction program, market for manufacturing products and SLOC. However, Israel, Turkey,Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq are all American allies. the US have closer relations with all states in Middle East but Iran. Iran will be discussed later.

As for Middle East nations, China’s comparative advantage on economy could be reflected on many fields, such as FDI, infrastructure construction, nuclear power and new energy technology. In addition, the oil producer in Middle East are much attracted by China’s market.

Strategy in the coming decade

Middle East is a typical sample of The Clash of Civilizations, which means various conflicts assemble: conflicts between different religions (i.e.Palestine and Israel), conflicts of different religious sects (Sunni and Shia), conflicts between moderates and radicals in one religion (the Palestine Liberation Organization and Hamas), and conflicts between different ethnic groups (Kurd and Turks). Moreover, conflicts between different religious sects surpass the conflicts between different religions, just like the Europe before World War Two.

In next decade, the prospect of China’s relations with Middle East States is mainly reflected by the cooperative potential on economic fields. Furthermore, it is uncertain to transform cultural exchange with considerable potential to practical(realistic) influence. On the one hand, China wants to play more significant role on security issue in Middle East to show the rising power responsibilities and capability; on the other hand, China also hope to get economic and cultural profits. Hands-off policy is written out. It is also inappropriate for China to get benefit from making conflicts like European powers did in history because it will do harm to China’s interest. Similarly, playing off one against the other, which Russia and the US prefer, is not a feasible approach, since the oppressed one, either the administration or the opposition, must adopt retaliatory measures, and then China will suffer economic damage, even terrorism attack. China’s ciritical task is still development of domestic economy and society, thus, it is unworthy for China to undertake too much international responsibilities and obligations to interfere with its internal progress in the context that China is neither the disputing party or responsible party of collision occurred in Middle East nor direct neighboring country of Middle East state which has been proved by the historical experience of France, Britain, and Russia.

Owing to the reason known to all, Middle East was known as “the graveyard of empires” . The past empires and great powers are incapable of solving all trouble in Middle East perfectly and thoroughly, let alone China, a late comer of  nation-state system. The only measures that China could adopt is “helping disputing parties in relative region to reach temporary compromise”, which is different from what European Union, Russia and the US used to do. In other words, China chose a powerful, but constructive and peaceful way, easily accepted by direct disputing parties and avoiding censure from extra-regional powers, meanwhile. Regarding concrete measures, China could continue to use the existing special envoy mediating, materials and financial assistance, and coordinating with other great powers and strengthen the dynamics of policy distinctly. China need to focus more on design of some compromising and cooperative schemes as available options for direct disputing parties though it is difficult.Over time, based on some cases carried out successfully, “China Scheme”will possess the quality of neutrality and impartiality, like the Nordic countries,but more powerful. The limit is never directly intervening local armed conflict. Chinese diplomatic strategy in Middle East should be positive and enterprising but lay more emphasis on strategical prudence and action according to capabilities(power), especially, by all means avoid being eager to show muscles.

Despite this, China could strengthen its military presence in Middle East with advisable manner all the same. China has determined to build logistical base for navy in Djibouti. If acquires proper chance, China could build similar bases in Middle East in the future. Oman, Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel and Iran are suitable choice from the point of geographical location. The possibility of implementation does not exist yet.

About the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)

International Atomic Energy Agency verified that Iran had done the necessary preparation steps of executing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on 16th, January. Many countries declared to lift sanctions or start the process of lifting sanctions, whereas, during the 10 years executive phase of the agreement, the sanctions will renew immediately once Iran violates the JCPOA. This agreement does not eliminate Iran’s ability of developing nuclear weapons but prolong it obtains weapons grade enriched uranium from some months to one year. Now that Iran takes nuclear weapons as the crucial tool of keeping theocracy and the symbol of great power, it is unlikely for Iran to give up developing nuclear weapons under the present political system. This implies that Tehran’s nuclear agreement with the international community resulted from the change of nuclear weapons developing strategy, from nuclear warhead priority to long-distance vehicle priority. This strategy comforts the hawk and supports the innovative, getting economic interests simultaneously. The central point of the struggle between Iran and western group will be rockets, which is likely to cause some vital sanctions renewing and retaining substantially. Against this background, in the coming decade, Chinese diplomacy toward Iran seems to be advancing cultural exchange with all strength, making a little more progress on economic cooperation with Iran than western world.

Analysis on Xi Jinping’s visit in Middle East

China has to make corresponding diplomatic strategies respectively toward the 4 forces in Middle East, Arabian countries, Turkey, Iran and Israel. The Arabian countries are the majority and China always keeps good relations with them, China needs to pay more attention to the relations with them. China’s Arab Policy Paper is related to the 60th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Egypt. China need a document to clarify its diplomacy toward Arabian countries and to implement OBOR.Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the representative of Arabian countries,  are the right countries to visit..

Of course this is by no means the sign that China puts the diplomacy toward Iran under the framework of Arabian diplomacy. Iran owns the potential to become a pivot country of OBOR and attaches great importance to relations with China. As a consequence, China and Iran built the comprehensive strategic partnership and China is the first country that built comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran.

China has already played a part in solving the Syria Crisis through inviting both sides, Syrian government and the opposition faction to visit China. Given the complexity of Syria Crisis and the roles that Iran and Saudi Arabia played in Syria Crisis, China knows that the summit mediation will be particularly helpful for resolution of Syria Crisis. However, the President of PRC direct flights from Riyadh to Teheran is absolutely inappropriate. Three reasons make Egypt a suitable transfer place: Egypt is a traditional leader of Arab world. Second, Egypt adopted a moderate stance and keeps normal relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Last but not least, China hopes that Egypt becomes a pivot country of OBOR, according Xi’s speech in Cairo.

The three countries are the representative of Persian Civilization, Egypt Civilization and Arabia Civilization respectively, which endows his visit with cultural implications. He stress repeatedly that, in the implementation of “the OBOR”, China will improve not only the economic cooperation but also the dialogue among civilizations. The numerous relevant activity or program of cultural exchange in Xi’s journal fully proved his words.

In conclusion, China’s interest in Mid-East in the coming decade mainly focuses on economy and culture. China’s diplomacy towards Middle East should aim at those two. International responsibility should be on the secondary place by pursuing the image of a positive constructor and strong peace keeper in Mid-East.