How Does OBOR Influence Sino-Japanese Relations?

By Xue Li from CASS

Zheng Yuwen(Master’s degree student for China Foreign Affairs University)

After standstill for three years, government summit between China, South Korea and Japan resumed in the end of 2015, which will perhaps help improve the political and economic relation among the three countries as well as keep the peace and stability of North East Asian. However, problem between China and Japan will prevent the process of improvement. In a long future,Sino-Japanese Relations will probably swing between “warm economy and cool politics” and “warm economy and warm politics” rather than reach hot status. Political zigzags stand ahead.

After taking reform and open-up policy for more than three decades, China’s comprehensive power and international influence rises enormously. It is the right time for China to adjust its identity and diplomatic strategies. Therefore, new Chinese government proposed One Belt and One Road initiative(OBOR), which serves as the top-level design for China’s foreign relations and will consequently shape the foreign strategy in the coming years. From now on , China will again view itself as a central country in Asia as well as a main power in the Eurasia continent instead of an East Asia country. Based on that, China will be bound to pursue all-around neighboring diplomacy in order to mould a new local security environment, play a more important role in regional politics, help develop economy in surrounding countries, make China more attractive to its neighboring countries, construct new regional political and economic order. The U.S. is still important for China, but not as before. When it comes to the room for improvement, Sino-US relations is obviously smaller than Sino-surrounding countries’ relations as a whole. What china can expect on the US is less obstacles for its peaceful rise. China has fully realized that a non-peaceful rise is the only option.

Diplomacy towards neighboring countries is obviously strengthened and China needs to find out some which have huge potential for improvement. Russia is the only comprehensive strategic partner. Central Asian countries are in the centre of Silk Road Economic Belt and actively echo OBOR. So as to the South Asian countries, especially Pakistan,China’s all-weather strategic partner, and Bangladesh, a quasi all-weather strategic partner. India has no enthusiastic for OBOR, its potential for development and cooperation with China makes it important for China’s neighboring diplomacy. Other South Asian countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka, and West Asian countries like Iran and Turkey, also get the rise because of potential for bilateral cooperation with China. ASEAN countries are the first hub in the construction of the Maritime Silk Road; one route of Silk Road Economic Belts also pass through the Indo-China Peninsula, hence ASEAN countries will keep its importance in Chinese neighboring diplomacy. About the Northeast Asia, South Korea has become China’s key sub-regional partner due to Sino-South Korean economic and political relations.In contrast, Sino-Japanese relations is no longer as important as that in 1980s and 1990s when Japan was a very important country --only next to the US--for China. Japan now has fallen behind Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, ASEAN, and South Korea. This situation will continue in forseeable future. Japan’s foreign policy takes the main part of the decline.

Since Nakasone Yasuhiro-Administration, Japan started to pursue “national normalization” which has become the consensus of Japanese political elites. Fairly speaking, Japan is entitled to do so. The point is that Japan behaves in a way unacceptable for neighboring countries when its war responsibility is unsolved. Abe administration has probably gone too far. He tries to achieve the aim by dramatically tightening Japanese-US alliance. Meanwhile, he stands back on historical issues by questioning Murayama statement, stirs up victim countries like China and South Korea by visiting Yasukuni Shrine, declaring that there is no clear definition of invasion and calling the comfort women as “the victims of human trafficking”), works hard to remove the article nine of the Peace Constitution and ignores mainstream opinion on this issue in Japan, considers Japanese-US joint air patrol in South China Sea, takes confrontation measures to OBOR, etc. To some extent, Sino-Japanese economic tie is the “ballast” of bilateral relation. However, the value of Sino-Japanese trade had already been inferior to Sino-Korea trade in the first half of 2015.

Abe seems not to care too much for bad Sino-Japanese relationship.  He has no interest to promote bilateral tie by echoing OBOR. Hence, it is difficult for Chinese government to expect Japan’s participation.

There are structural contradiction between “national normalization” and OBOR, the foundation of Sino-Japanese strategic reciprocity based on the target of establishing the East Asian Community is no longer in existence. Lack of common strategic goal and therefore lack of necessary strategic mutual trust, it is impossible that the Sino-Japanese Relations become warm, so as to the strategic cooperation between them. During Abe Administration, China-Japan-South Korea FTA won’t come to true on the one hand, on the other hand, two countries won’t witness the reduction of economic tie, which is obviously harmful for both. Both sides will try to keep economic relations in lukewarm situation. When political relations affects the economic tie, China and Japan may act to slightly warm it up. And we witnessed “the four points consensus” on November 7^th, 2014, and the twice meetings between Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe in the following six months. The pain killers won’t really cure the disease of bilateral relations. To sum up,Sino-Japanese Relations will move between “warm economy and cool politics” and “warm economy and warm politics” . The situation probably won’t change until Abe finishes his term.

What can two sides do then? They may try functional cooperation in specific fields. Japan will like to cooperate with China on issues like unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) , high-speed rail equipments, communication standard, and so on.

Japan still has comparative advantages on fields such as energy saving and emission reduction, urban public transportation management, the recycle and utilization of garbage and so on.

Japan and China could also try to cooperate in the third country. For example, they may cooperate in infrastructure construction in the Indo-China Peninsula. And what is more, two countries as the main consumer of oil and gas may, together with South Korea and India, works on removing Asia Premium of oil price.